Appliance industry enters deep adjustment period

On May 31, 2013, the energy-saving subsidies for home appliances were formally withdrawn from the appliance market. Previously, a series of “beautiful” vocabularies such as full-fledged red and explosive growth were used in the home appliance market. It can be seen that the implementation of energy-saving subsidies policy has reached an unprecedented height after 2013, especially in the color TV industry, can be described as the biggest beneficiaries. According to statistics, from the perspective of subsidy amount, as of March 31, 2013 (first quarter), color TV enterprises have enjoyed a total of 110 billion subsidies. In the first three months of 2013, color TV companies received a subsidy of nearly 5 billion yuan. Support, close to the amount of subsidies received during the past six months.

With the "sudden stop" of policies, sales pressures have followed, even though the industry's 2013 forecast for the color TV market has grown. Undoubtedly, the three quarters after the policy withdrawal can be described as "stressful." "The market in the third quarter will have a 25% drop compared with last year and the competition among brands will intensify." Luo Baihui, chief analyst of Jinmojia Power Grid believes that in the second half of this year, sales and growth of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines will all drop significantly.

In addition, some industry experts believe that the household appliance market is relatively stable, and the overall sales market has not changed significantly, but the manufacturers’ market profitability model will weaken in the second half of the year.

In the third quarter, the pressure on the color TV market will drop by 20%

With the delisting of several national subsidy policies, the home appliance industry has entered a new period of adaptation. In the second half of 2013, the home appliance industry will usher in a test.

According to the survey data, the retail sales of color TV products declined by 37.8% in the 25th week (June 17th - June 23rd). It is reported that in the first week of policy cancellation, color TV sales even saw a 70% reduction.

For the “post-energy conservation subsidy era”, Luo Baihui, chief analyst of Jinmojia Power Grid, said that from the current market perspective, it is not very optimistic. Compared to the second half of 2012, the market size is declining, and the overall decline will be 15%— Between 20%; For the second half of the market analysis, can be divided into two parts, the first part is the third quarter, just after the end of energy subsidies, the market sales pressure will be very large, the overall market is estimated to drop 25%. In the fourth quarter, there will be marked improvement. If we look at the whole year, the entire color TV market has grown.

This point has also been confirmed by Lu Jiebo, deputy secretary-general of the China Electronic Chamber of Commerce. He said that neither LeTV nor Lenovo, including the entry of future millet TV, will have any significant impact on the sales of traditional home appliances. This is a A more stable market.

"Post-subsidy era", including the next few how to go? Luo Baihui believes that in the future, color TV and home appliance markets will enter a period of in-depth adjustment, and various companies will face how to activate the market, overcapacity and overstocking of product models.

Skyworth Group's financial report shows that its inventory as of March 31, 2013 was 510.9 thousand units, an increase of 31.5% over the same period of last year. Yang Wendong, president of Skyworth Group, said that it was the inventory that was made for the energy saving subsidy withdrawal policy in April and May. So far, these stocks have basically been digested. These products are all energy-saving models. If manufacturers do not sell them quickly, what can they do in the future? You can't do anything in the future. It can be seen that all manufacturers are close to the policy of the last train.

The direct result of digesting inventory during the policy period is a substantial increase in sales. In Skyworth's financial report, we can see that sales in May increased by 72% compared with the same period of last year. If there is no preparation for this inventory, there can be no such growth.

Obviously, various manufacturers have their own hands-on preparations for the depth adjustment of the color TV in the second half of the year. Even if the market has experienced different degrees of decline, the high sales in the previous period will be enough to make this year a nice "answer."

Real estate and other favorable factors limited brand competition intensified

For the second half of the year the color TV market has come, all manufacturers are frankly stressed that the pressure will be even greater. However, for the industry, it is also good news. The first good news is the implementation of affordable housing, basically the first half of the year. At present, there are more than 5 million sets of official data that can be put into the market.

The other is the sale of commercial housing, although the commercial housing market is subject to a certain degree of pressure, this year, commercial housing can maintain growth, and it is a rapid growth, which will drive consumption.

With regard to the pulling of the real estate market, when the Jinmojia power grid judged the market in the second half of the year, it actually took these external factors into consideration. Safeguarded housing does have a positive effect on the market, but the impact is small. In the Chinese retail market, judging data show that 80% of the purchasers of color TVs last year were redemptions, or purchased again because the TV was broken or had reached the end of its service life. In the new purchase section, there are less than 20% of consumer groups for housing, affordable housing and commercial housing. Even in the next few months, the owners of the delivered affordable housing have purchased it, which accounts for about 10% of the entire color TV market. It can be said that the impact is very limited. In addition, in the newly married young group, the proportion of home-to-machine purchases is also declining for households aged 80 to 30 years old. Therefore, for the entire color TV market, the overall second half will still have a 15% -20% reduction.

It can be seen that the increase in brand competition in the second half is certain. Each brand has its own sales target, including TCL, Skyworth's new year goals, and 10 million tasks.

Lenovo, LeTV and Xiaomi in the future have all made cross-industry attempts in the smart TV field, and the battle between traditional TV manufacturers has become more intense. The future of domestic color TV manufacturers who can make breakthroughs in product thinking and user experience will further win the leading advantages of the smart TV industry. At present, Skyworth and Konka have launched new products.

However, it seems that in the industry, the gap in the share between domestic brands and brands will remain relatively stable in the future, and the gap between domestic brands and foreign brands will not change.

Large-screen televisions continue to grow rapidly and prices continue to decline

Avid Consulting (AVC) expects that in the second half of 2013, adjusting the product mix, increasing sales revenue and profitability will become the main direction of the company and the industry consensus.

In this context, the color TV market will face some changes: 50-inch or larger large-screen products will quickly increase volume, break through 20% of the total, reach 9 million units or even 10 million units, and sell smart TVs and 3D TVs in the overall market. The proportion of this year will exceed 50% to more than 22 million units, and ultra high-definition television will reach a scale of about 700,000 units.

The downward trend of color TV market prices will not change. In the first half of the energy-saving subsidy policy, consumers generally have a subsidy of 300 yuan to 400 yuan for buying TV. Once the state subsidy does not, the pressure on manufacturers is relatively large. Indeed, brands such as Hisense, Konka, etc. are all spending their own pockets and have used various activities such as trade-in replacement to subsidize consumers.

If sales are not optimistic in the second half of the year, the supply of panels may be oversupply, because the panel's mass production plans have been finalized in the previous quarter. Once the panel prices drop, even if there are 10 US dollars, the whole machine will have 100 - A decrease of 200 yuan.

For consumers, the second half of the year should be the trough of color TV prices.

How to increase the market and profits of home appliance companies

Although the industry is not optimistic about the color TV market in the second half of the year, it is certain that the decline in sales volume should only be short-lived. For a stable color TV market, the future is still worth the wait.

In the long run, the future China color TV market will also have 5 million units of room for improvement. The market size will reach 50 million to 55 million units.

However, behind this high sales volume, the industry also has some hidden worries, that is, product innovation and market profitability. Undoubtedly, at present, it can be seen from the financial reports of various companies that the gross profit margin has been reduced to a certain extent, and the downward trend in the price of color TV industry is already a constant law. Before product changes and technological changes occur, existing products can only become cheaper and cheaper.

Mr. Lu Jiebo, deputy secretary-general of the China Electronic Chamber of Commerce, bluntly stated that there are new products that have good prices in order to have high profit points. Currently, high-margin products, ultra-high-definition, and large-screen products occupy a small amount of market share and market profits. There is hardly any ability to play.

On the contrary, with new products, high profits will surely come from where new products come from. This is technology. Whether from the domestic market or the global market in the future, it has to be said that there can be no leading products without leading technologies; without leading products, it is impossible to have leading markets in the long run. Only at this point, TV companies It is worth working hard to win.