According to IHS Markit's forecast, global flat panel display demand will increase by 7.2% from the previous year to reach 210 million square meters in 2018. This is the largest annual increase since 2014.
Ricky Park, head of IHS Markit, said: "Next year, the shift to the big screen, the drop in panel prices, and the expectation of a global economic recovery will boost the demand for flat panel displays."
In the second half of 2017, the sharp drop in panel prices will soon be reflected in the year-end shopping season and the price of consumer electronics products in early 2018. Cheaper panel prices will support the demand for large-screen products.
Flat panel display demand (per area) annual growth rate
IHS Markit's Long-Term Demand Forecasting Monitor Report pointed out that with the launch of the 10.5 line in the first half of 2018, the supply of ultra-large TV panels such as 65-inch and 75-inch TVs is expected to increase.
With the application of borderless flexible OLED screens becoming increasingly widespread on smart phones, the overall screen size of smartphones is expected to increase next year. Park said: "The launch of new large-screen smart phones will encourage consumers to replace their old phones."
Influenced by the digitized conversion of radio and television that began in the late 2000s, the flat-panel TV market will also see significant growth due to replacement demand. In the market where digital conversion was completed in the late 2000s, TV sales increased by 10% to 21% between 2009 and 2010, which is much higher than the compound annual growth rate of 3% between 2004 and 2014.
Park said: "The consumer TV replacement cycle is generally 10 years. It is expected that there will be a wave of replacement demand peaks in the coming years."
On the eve of the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics and on the eve of the Russian World Cup in June, the demand for new televisions and larger TVs will be greater, which will also promote the growth of the global flat panel display market.
Park said: "In the even-numbered years of the world's major sports events, the growth of panel sales is expected to be faster than odd years."
In addition, the continued recovery of the global economy has also had a positive impact on panel demand. According to IHS data, global GDP is expected to increase by 3.2% in 2018, 3.1% in 2017, and 2.6% in 2016. In particular, the economic recovery momentum in North America and emerging markets such as India, Brazil, and Russia will be stronger than in previous years. The growth of non-ferrous metal prices (usually the precursor to economic recovery) is another positive signal.
Unlike the strong growth in demand area, the value of the global flat panel display market will be limited by the decline in panel prices in the second half of 2017. From 2017 to 2018, the market value of the panel is expected to increase by only 1% to reach US$126 billion.
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