Known as "the godfather of venture capital", not only because of the high performance and strong style of the industry, but also because of the entrepreneurs and young people, he can always tell some truth and dry goods.
"Entrepreneurship is a small probability event", "There is no sufficient condition for finding a successful enterprise", "Entrepreneurship is a good thing, but it is best not to engage in sports, and it may bring disastrous consequences." The various language outlets are not only from the current venture. The true perception of ecology is also due to his profound grasp of the direction of society.
When innovation became one of the most important topics at the moment, during the final of the 4th “Dongsha Lake Cup†Thousand Talents Entrepreneurship Competition, the founding management partners of SAIF Asia Investment Fund and NVC Lighting Investors were interviewed.
The era of original innovation
In the eyes of Zhai, there are two kinds of innovations: the first is to create products and services that have not existed in human history, which is original innovation; the second is to provide the same products and equipment, or to do more cost Low, sell cheaper, or do better but the price remains the same.
In the past three decades, China’s innovation has been mainly the latter, and it is also the main driving force for China’s economic development. But China, which has now become the world's second largest economy, is no longer able to rely on this model.
"China's reforms for more than 30 years are actually a stage before 2007. Basically, through system reforms, energy is released, economic efficiency is released, and growth has been good. After 2008, China's economic growth model has changed to mainly driven by investment, especially After the financial crisis, the economic losses caused by it were great, the overcapacity was serious, and the currency depreciation was also very strong.†He believes that the problem of overcapacity is like a drop of ink dripping into the clear water, which automatically spreads and consumes very little energy, but To reconverge the ink, it may consume 10,000 times more energy, and the current environment can no longer afford the investment-driven model.
At the same time, this road of investment and extensional growth has also led to a significant reduction in marginal efficiency. "In the past, investing one trillion yuan may drive GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points. It is now possible to invest 10 trillion yuan to achieve this effect."
He believes that the current hot words such as "Internet ++" or "state-owned enterprise reform" are all about how to change from past investment and outward expansion mode to true efficiency improvement.
"This is the most important challenge of our '13th Five-Year'. If this step can go, the Chinese economy still has a long way to go. If we remain in the past, our marginal efficiency will drop sharply. There are many challenges," he said.
Coupled with the substantial increase in labor costs, the second road with lower costs is unsustainable. “We must take the first road, which is truly innovative and original technology, and create products and services that others do not have. This kind of innovation is the main direction for our future development.†He said that if you follow such a path of innovation, No matter in which field, it can play a huge role in economic pull.
As an investor, he focuses on three areas: Internet +, medical, and environmental protection.
"Using the Internet to transform the traditional economy has just begun. This market is huge. I estimate that this is the theme for the next 20 years. How to improve the efficiency and efficiency of various fields." He is also frank, the current "Internet +" has many elements. There are not many really good companies.
He believes that after the emergence of mobile Internet technology, when big data and other technologies are more mature, the domestic B2B field will certainly come out with many interesting companies in the next few years. For example, the model of sharing the economy will bring very good changes to the B2B field. .
"We have seen some clues. For example, most SMEs do not follow the formal accounting, they evade tax evasion, they can't afford the big four accounting firms, which is also true. Then use the UBER model to make accounting In the spare time, giving the company part-time accounts, not taking up time does not affect the work, many small businesses can do, this is very novel and promising."
In addition, air, water, and food, which will plague us in the next few decades, present many opportunities and more challenges.
Take the solar industry, I believe that more than 90% of the companies still have not improved, the key is the excess capacity. “Our country accounts for more than half of the world's production capacity, enough for the world to consume four years, and there is still a lot of time to go through capacity conversion and consumption. Another issue worthy of attention is pollution and energy consumption in the production process. ."
He believes that the environmental protection industry is related to the government in any country in the world. Without policy subsidies, the industry is difficult to get up. The development of the entire environmental protection industry is still more affected by political factors. This is a problem that needs to be solved.
Strangle the power of innovation
Since the beginning of this year, Internet mergers and acquisitions have been in the tide, and the giants have taken the lead in the industry.
I am quite sure of BAT's innovative technologies, especially Ali's big data. He also believes that these mergers are the right thing for companies to reduce unnecessary expenses, but for the overall economy and innovation ecology, they are buried. Some hidden dangers.
"The United States has anti-monopoly and anti-trust laws, and will continue to have Microsoft, Intel, etc.. If in the United States, BAT may not be a good thing today, they are so powerful, they are almost monopolized in China, these Internet After the giants become bigger, there will be huge obstacles for small startups. The latter cannot compete at all. Whether it is finance, government policy, or market share, it is not killed or sold."
Another issue with Chinese characteristics is intellectual property.
He pointed out that the lack of intellectual property protection has promoted many cottage-type companies. This method of copying is also an important development model of the economy in the past three decades. "But after China's economic development, if we do not pay attention to rules and intellectual property protection, China will not be able to produce original products. Just like practicing martial arts, Sanda also won, but when it hits the ring, it will be beaten. Unprotected intellectual property rights may get rid of poverty, but it will never reach the collapse of the world."
Since these days, every time you go to an entrepreneurial-related occasion, you will always communicate with young people and entrepreneurs.
He said that the success rate of enterprises in Chinese and foreign history is less than 1%. According to the statistical concept, most successful entrepreneurs are between 30 and 38 years old, and most of them will succeed in the third business. A student who has just left the school may hear stories of inspirational and successful, but don't fool yourself. If it is not a genius, the success rate is very low.
"The first piece of advice is to study hard. If you have knowledge and professional skills, the probability will definitely be higher. The smart students must have a high success rate. The probability of success in studying abroad is much greater. The statistics must be like this." Say.
His second concern for entrepreneurial innovation is still "sports entrepreneurship."
"The method of doing this must be careful not to engage in sports. The power of the market must be the biggest. The market economy has its own rules of operation. There are no invisible hands. The Internet will still change the traditional industry." He said that the photovoltaic foam of Jiangxi Saiwei, Wuxi Suntech, and the earlier LED foam are all the consequences of "sports."
“Investors have been searching for sufficient conditions for their success in their lifetime. Buffett has spent sixty years. I have spent 20 years and have not found it. In other words, this thing may not exist. A company succeeds in many variables. Combination: entrepreneurial experience, personality, cash support, and more.
Nantong Boxin Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. , https://www.bosencontrols.com