On the third day of the 5th (2011) International Solar Energy Industry and Photovoltaic Exhibition and Forum of SNEC, the Silicon Material Technology Forum was held at the Kerry Hotel. Dr. Erk Thorsten Heyen, vice president of polysilicon giant Wacker, delivered a speech on the uncertainty and periodicity of the polysilicon industry.
Dr. Heyen said that although the price of polysilicon has risen significantly in the past year, the price of polysilicon has fallen a lot over the past four years. The surge in market demand in 2010 led to a significant increase in the installed capacity of photovoltaic power plants, and the supply of silicon materials has tightened. The relative scarcity of polysilicon is temporary, but this shortage, especially the shortage of high-quality polysilicon, will hardly make a big difference in the coming months and even in the first half of 2012.
WACKER currently has 32,000 tons of polysilicon production capacity, and the two bases to be completed will also have 10,000 tons and 15,000 tons of polysilicon production capacity, respectively. WACKER's long-term goal is to create 150,000 tons of polysilicon production capacity, Dr. Heyen also stressed that this is not the ultimate goal.
The growth of the photovoltaic market is a long-term trend, and the parity of photovoltaic power generation will continue to improve. Dr. Heyen expects that the price of photovoltaic power generation will basically be the same as wind power, especially offshore wind power, in the next two years. With the influx of new companies and the expansion of industry capacity, the competition in the polysilicon industry will continue to increase. Big companies have pricing power in the industry, and they have a clear competitive advantage regardless of product output and manufacturing costs, or the quality of the product. If the newly-entered company has risks in terms of product quality and technology, if it can't be solved well, it will not only have limited development space, but it will even be difficult to survive.
Dr. Heyen believes that we should pay attention to the quality of the entire industry chain of the photovoltaic industry, rather than focusing on the downstream links of the industrial chain. The quality of raw materials is also very important and will directly affect the photoelectric conversion efficiency of photovoltaic cells. WACKER has significant advantages in product quality, delivery time, polysilicon purity, and stability.
As for the silicon consumption of PV products, it is currently at a level of 70-80 g/W. Dr. Heyen believes that with the advancement of technology, there will be a marked reduction in the future. The two major factors affecting the silicon consumption of photovoltaic products are: the use efficiency (loss) of polysilicon materials and the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic cells. The former has relatively limited room for improvement. The increase in the photovoltaic efficiency of photovoltaic cells will be the most important means of reducing the amount of silicon consumed.
When talking about the metallurgical polysilicon that has been applied commercially and has a good momentum of development, Dr. Heyen believes that the metallurgical method polysilicon is still relatively ideal in terms of application effect, but the purity is not high enough and impurities are too much. He reminded everyone that both cost and price are factors that need to be considered. Generally speaking, low-purity, poor-grade polysilicon materials are indeed cheaper, but their production costs for later use of photovoltaic cells are higher, and the total production of photovoltaic products is higher. As costs rise, companies need to think about it. Of course, the requirements for silicon materials in applications with different conditions are also different and it is difficult to generalize.
Polysilicon production equipment, process and turnkey supplier of the entire line - GTSolar pointed out in its provided technical information, as far as polysilicon manufacturers are concerned, it is equally important to be able to provide high-quality polysilicon and be able to provide low-cost polysilicon. Because in the past 25 years, the activity and instability of the polysilicon business have made the answer to the question “Who gives priority to the price and quality of the product� The standards for polysilicon consumers (downstream buyers) who choose material suppliers also oscillate between these two factors: When polysilicon is scarce, buyers are more concerned about prices; conversely, when polysilicon exceeds demand, buyers are more concerned about quality. The price is determined by the market, and the quality of the product is determined by the buyer. Therefore, the change in the supply and demand relationship of polysilicon makes the "cost and quality" very important for polysilicon manufacturers. Both must have the ability to remain invincible in the ever-increasing market competition.
Dr. Heyen said that although the price of polysilicon has risen significantly in the past year, the price of polysilicon has fallen a lot over the past four years. The surge in market demand in 2010 led to a significant increase in the installed capacity of photovoltaic power plants, and the supply of silicon materials has tightened. The relative scarcity of polysilicon is temporary, but this shortage, especially the shortage of high-quality polysilicon, will hardly make a big difference in the coming months and even in the first half of 2012.
WACKER currently has 32,000 tons of polysilicon production capacity, and the two bases to be completed will also have 10,000 tons and 15,000 tons of polysilicon production capacity, respectively. WACKER's long-term goal is to create 150,000 tons of polysilicon production capacity, Dr. Heyen also stressed that this is not the ultimate goal.
The growth of the photovoltaic market is a long-term trend, and the parity of photovoltaic power generation will continue to improve. Dr. Heyen expects that the price of photovoltaic power generation will basically be the same as wind power, especially offshore wind power, in the next two years. With the influx of new companies and the expansion of industry capacity, the competition in the polysilicon industry will continue to increase. Big companies have pricing power in the industry, and they have a clear competitive advantage regardless of product output and manufacturing costs, or the quality of the product. If the newly-entered company has risks in terms of product quality and technology, if it can't be solved well, it will not only have limited development space, but it will even be difficult to survive.
Dr. Heyen believes that we should pay attention to the quality of the entire industry chain of the photovoltaic industry, rather than focusing on the downstream links of the industrial chain. The quality of raw materials is also very important and will directly affect the photoelectric conversion efficiency of photovoltaic cells. WACKER has significant advantages in product quality, delivery time, polysilicon purity, and stability.
As for the silicon consumption of PV products, it is currently at a level of 70-80 g/W. Dr. Heyen believes that with the advancement of technology, there will be a marked reduction in the future. The two major factors affecting the silicon consumption of photovoltaic products are: the use efficiency (loss) of polysilicon materials and the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic cells. The former has relatively limited room for improvement. The increase in the photovoltaic efficiency of photovoltaic cells will be the most important means of reducing the amount of silicon consumed.
When talking about the metallurgical polysilicon that has been applied commercially and has a good momentum of development, Dr. Heyen believes that the metallurgical method polysilicon is still relatively ideal in terms of application effect, but the purity is not high enough and impurities are too much. He reminded everyone that both cost and price are factors that need to be considered. Generally speaking, low-purity, poor-grade polysilicon materials are indeed cheaper, but their production costs for later use of photovoltaic cells are higher, and the total production of photovoltaic products is higher. As costs rise, companies need to think about it. Of course, the requirements for silicon materials in applications with different conditions are also different and it is difficult to generalize.
Polysilicon production equipment, process and turnkey supplier of the entire line - GTSolar pointed out in its provided technical information, as far as polysilicon manufacturers are concerned, it is equally important to be able to provide high-quality polysilicon and be able to provide low-cost polysilicon. Because in the past 25 years, the activity and instability of the polysilicon business have made the answer to the question “Who gives priority to the price and quality of the product� The standards for polysilicon consumers (downstream buyers) who choose material suppliers also oscillate between these two factors: When polysilicon is scarce, buyers are more concerned about prices; conversely, when polysilicon exceeds demand, buyers are more concerned about quality. The price is determined by the market, and the quality of the product is determined by the buyer. Therefore, the change in the supply and demand relationship of polysilicon makes the "cost and quality" very important for polysilicon manufacturers. Both must have the ability to remain invincible in the ever-increasing market competition.
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