At a global online seminar held at the end of January by Finlay Colville, vice president of NPD Solarbuzz, a solar energy market research organization, the top ten market trends for the global solar industry in 2013 were as follows:
First, global solar demand will continue to grow. Between 2013 and 2014, the annual demand for the global solar market is expected to reach 30-40GW. In the next four to five years, policy will remain the biggest driver of the major solar market. In addition, the prices of solar modules and other system equipment have an increasingly strong influence on market demand.
Second, the solar energy market will be further globalized. The scope and proportion of emerging markets will be expanded, notable countries include: South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Chile, Brazil, Mexico, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and so on.
Third, the Chinese solar market will occupy a pivotal position. As the Chinese government adopts preferential policies to expand domestic demand, it is expected that the Chinese market will challenge the number one position in the world in 2013. How to effectively develop the Chinese market will be a major test for solar energy companies.
NPD Solarbuzz observed that after the Chinese government's attitude to encourage and support the development of the domestic solar industry is clear, governments around the world are taking active measures to develop the solar industry, and the actions of local governments in the northwest are particularly eye-catching. Several power transmission and transformation projects in the Golmud Circle Economic Industrial Park of Qinghai Province have been started one after another. A large number of power companies have been introduced in Jinchang New Energy Industrial Park in Gansu to absorb solar power on-site. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, large-scale solar ground power stations in the northwest region are expected to be further developed, and the power generation problems that have long plagued power station developers have been gradually resolved.
According to NPD Solarbuzz statistics, in China, only five provinces in northwestern China are expected to exceed 2.6 GW of new solar installations in 2013. On the other hand, the “Golden Sun†demonstration project in eastern China has also received increasing attention from solar energy companies. The second batch of “Golden Sun†approved installations for the year announced at the end of 2012 reached 2.83 GW, which greatly exceeded the industry ’s general expectations. The annual “Golden Sun†demonstration project reached 4.5 GW, which was the 2013 Chinese solar roof The rapid growth of the market has laid a solid foundation.
Global solar market demand in 2013
(Source: NPD Solarbuzz)
Fourth, the situation of oversupply of industry is improving. Although there are still some production lines operating at a lower rate rather than withdrawing from the market, the situation of supply and demand rebalancing will be expected to arrive between 2013 and 2014.
Fifth, industrial integration will gradually deepen. From the perspective of the global supply chain, the gap in industrial concentration between different production links in 2012 became larger. Although the output of the leading companies in the polysilicon and silicon wafer market has a large advantage, the total market share of the top ten brands in the battery and module segment is still less than 50%, and it is expected to further integrate in the next two years.
Sixth, the price of solar products will gradually stabilize. The price of each link of the industrial chain will still be under pressure to maintain the internal rate of return of terminal investment, but manufacturers are expected to improve gross profit by improving efficiency and reducing costs.
Seventh, the production of solar energy enterprises will be more rational. According to changes in the supply and demand balance in their respective target markets and their own situation, in 2013, solar energy companies will reasonably arrange capacity utilization. For example, from the third quarter of 2012, the first-tier polysilicon manufacturers have lowered the utilization rate from an average of more than 90% in the past to less than 70% at the end of 2012.
Eighth, the technical landscape of the solar market will tend to be stable. Thin-film technology will still account for about 10% of the market, and the dominant players are still First Solar and Solar FronTIer; in the crystalline silicon product market, standard process battery modules based on polycrystalline silicon wafers are still mainstream.
Ninth, solar industry equipment spending will bottom out. After experiencing excessive investment from 2010 to 2012, it is expected that the solar industry equipment spending will begin to rebound in 2014 and return to more than 5 billion US dollars in 2015.
Tenth, trade protection rulings will have far-reaching impact. In 2013, the focus of industry attention will be on the “dual-anti†investigation by the EU and China, and trade protection measures in more countries may be announced.
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