Chip prices drop industry competition intensified how the LED industry layout?

Recently, at the “LED Industry Symposium 2011” held by GF Securities, participating experts and corporate executives: Mr. Zi Bo, Deputy Secretary-General of National Semiconductor Lighting Engineering R&D and Industry Alliance, and Mr. Li Man Tie, Chairman of Lehman Optoelectronics, Dr. Yu Binhai, director and deputy general manager of National Star Optoelectronics, Mr. Ye Sunyi, chief financial officer and board secretary of Ganzhao attended the meeting and discussed the LED industry in 2011. The main contents and opinions of the meeting are summarized as follows:

1. The LED industry will continue to grow rapidly in the next few years

In the past 10 years, the cost-effectiveness of LED has been increasing every year. At present, the luminous efficiency of LED has surpassed that of traditional light sources. The overall cost of lighting has been lower than that of incandescent lamps, halogen spotlights and CFL downlights. In 2012, it will be equivalent to energy-saving lamps. The price of LED products in 2015 may be reduced to 1/5 in 2010. By then, the general lighting market penetration rate will reach 50%, and by 2020 it will account for more than 75% of the lighting market.

At present, the global industrial competition pattern is the United States, Japan, and Europe, and South Korea, the mainland, and Taiwan are catching up. At present, all countries are implementing strategic deployments, such as Japan’s promotion of LED lighting through substantial government subsidies. It is expected that Japan’s replacement rate in 2015 will reach 50%, and the replacement rate in 2020 will reach 100%; South Korea will ensure a 30% general lighting market in 2015.

The total output value of China's LED industry has reached 120 billion yuan, with more than 4,000 enterprises. The average growth rate in the past five years was 35%, and in 2010 it exceeded 40%. According to relevant statistics, Guangdong's LED output value reached 83.5 billion yuan. It is expected that the average output value of the industry will exceed 35% in the next few years. China has achieved remarkable results in the research and development of key technologies, especially in terms of packaging products, and there are also significant breakthroughs in applications. In terms of patent applications, there are more than 28,912 patent applications for related LED patents, of which the proportion of patents for packaging and applications is close to 70%; there are six national testing platforms and another three are under preparation.

2. LED industry investment has a structural overheating trend

In 2010, the output value of the traditional lighting industry reached 290 billion yuan. In 2010, the output value of LED general lighting was 18 billion yuan, an increase of 140% from 7.5 billion yuan in 2009, accounting for 21% of the LED application market, and up 7 percentage points from 14% in 2009. Among them, the growth rate of LED street lights and tunnel lights exceeded 100%. Union statistics domestic LED street lamps have now exceeded 1.6 million baht. The LED market penetration rate in 2010 was less than 1%, and it is expected to reach 30% in 2015. However, in the strict sense, the general lighting market is still mainly pushed by the government, and the real market has not yet started, but replacing traditional lighting is a general trend.

In 2009, the scale of domestic investment reached 20 billion yuan and reached 30 billion yuan in 2010. Investment is mainly concentrated in the upstream and downstream sectors of the industrial chain. At present, domestic investment is very strong. Some solar energy companies also invested in the company. The GCL-Poly Group invested 2.5 billion U.S. dollars and introduced 500 MOCVD-built Suzhou LED bases.

In 2010, the number of new MOCVD equipment planned to be added to the mainland will be 50% of the global supply of MOCVD in 2009, and 1466 new units will be added to the three-year plan, which will exceed the sum of global MOCVD equipment in 2009. According to this plan, the wafer production capacity will be three years later. It is 10-15 times that of 2009. What needs to be noted here is that when the demand for the industry comes up, the above-mentioned number of equipment may still be in short supply, but at present, the market has not yet risen, and it is still unclear whether these equipments will be surplus. Investment has a structural overheating trend, with more than one-third of traditional lighting companies having entered or planned to enter.

3. China's LED industry opportunities and challenges coexist

Due to China's mastery of traditional lighting and mainstream material technology, China may become a strong LED industry. The influence and volatility of China's control at the national level is more obvious.

The domestic LED industry has both opportunities and challenges. Opportunities: 1) Traditional and emerging markets have huge business opportunities, 2) The construction industry is more powerful in driving the lighting industry. 3) Energy-saving emission reduction and sustainable development provide a good opportunity for the LED industry. 4 Lastly, the policy strongly promoted the growth of the industry. The significance of the industry represented by the bidding for semi-conductor demonstration projects last year was enormous. Challenges: 1) Developed countries have already introduced promotional policies for demonstration applications, 2) Developed countries have issued high-energy incandescent lamps and other energy With the prohibitions and restrictions on traditional lighting fixtures, China also needs to keep up to date, 3) In addition, the government level is concerned that the promotion of the industry too quickly will affect the employment situation of the traditional lighting industry, but the transition needs to be carried out in accordance with market rules. Promote and control, and 4) The strong entry of international giants requires us to speed up the integration of downstream applications. 5) Standard patents have become the focus of international competition. 6) The distribution of industrial resources is not concentrated. China is a local economy. It is difficult to restrict the development of various localities. The status quo of upstream products tends to be low-end, and there are disadvantages in talents. 7) Industry support Collaborative enough. The technical support is not enough and the development environment is not perfect. The investment level is relatively low, the homogeneity of products is relatively serious, and the market inspection mechanisms such as standards and certifications are perfect.