Because of a photo of Premier Li Keqiang's visit to Toyota, the discussion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles has been hot in the industry for several days. When everyone hasn't digested the central idea behind the photo, Toyota, the protagonist of this discussion, made an unexpected response and invested a lot of resources in preparation for the "war of life and death." This car company with absolute advantages in the field of hybrid technology once again shows its deep determination to electric vehicles. Will this be the reassurance of the pure electric technology line? On May 9, Toyota released the 2017 fiscal year. The financial report, sales of about 176.4 billion yuan, net profit of about 145.7 billion yuan, both hit a record high. In the face of good financial data, the company is worried. Toyota sees the upcoming industry revolution as a “war of life and death†and emphasizes that this is a profound change that will happen once every 100 years. As a Japanese company with a sense of crisis, Toyota said it will continue to reduce costs and increase profits in the new fiscal year to support the company's future investment in automotive technology, especially in the areas of autonomous driving, car networking, electric vehicles and battery technology. Invest.
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This is the second time Toyota has demonstrated its determination to electric vehicles for the second time since the announcement of the establishment of the Pure Electric Vehicles Division at the end of 2016. It is worth noting that Toyota emphasizes automotive technology, not just electric vehicles. Toyota's emphasis on technology is evident in a wave of job advertisements launched last year. In July and November of last year, Toyota launched a job advertisement in the intensive Nanwu Line and Tokyo residential area of ​​the Japanese technology company. The copy said nakedly, are you working at a technology manufacturer? Then please come to the company.
Why is this company with deep technical reserves in hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and hybrid vehicles?
Is hybrid power a transitional technology for pure electric vehicles?
Since the 1990s, when Toyota introduced the hybrid Prius, hybrid power is synonymous with environmental pioneers. Later, due to the increase in battery energy density and the implementation of domestic policies, after the rapid development of pure electric vehicles, hybrid power was seen by many as a phased transition technology to pure electric vehicles.
But in fact, it's not. Hybrid technology is a technological evolution that will inevitably occur when fuel vehicles develop to a certain stage. The core improvement is the fuel economy of vehicles. Pure electric vehicles represent a complete transformation of the automobile energy structure. Although the structure of the vehicle's power structure is simpler, the limitation of battery energy density does not fully represent the final stage of technological development. To some extent, hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles are all explorations of the driving force that fuel vehicles must develop in the development process.
It is precisely because of the three major reasons of carbon emissions, energy structure and overtaking of the curve that the domestic subsidy policy based on pure electric vehicles has been determined. Through the networking effect of charging infrastructure, the promotion of pure electric vehicles has taken a new stage.
In terms of technological development, there is no direct and necessary correlation between hybrid and pure electric vehicles. Most of the new car companies do not need to research hybrid electric technology to develop pure electric vehicle technology. However, in terms of market demand, hybrid vehicles have lowered the threshold for consumers to accept new energy vehicles. Most consumers who bought hybrid vehicles have increased their acceptance of new energy vehicles and their acceptance of pure electric vehicles. higher. Hybrid vehicles have educated the market ahead of pure electric vehicles.
But if hybrids and pure electric vehicles only have such a correlation, even if the Chinese government pushes pure electric vehicles, it will not cause a serious sense of crisis for old-fashioned auto companies like Toyota.
The pure electric car here, I call it the traditional electric car, represented by the earliest Nissan Leaf and Renault ZOE. The electric car like Tesla, which is familiar to the public, is called a new electric car. What really caught the Toyota crisis was a new electric car like Tesla.
The contest between industrial thinking and industrial thinking
Hybrid vehicles and traditional electric vehicles represent industrial thinking and are developed through progressive technological innovation under the constraints of scale and standardization of manufacturing. The change of the driving mode of the automobile alone is only the continuation of the law of the traditional automobile industry. Under the mutual limitation of various conditions such as technology research and development, product design and manufacturing, the development follows the strict technical curve.
History has proven that a single technological innovation or technological breakthrough will not lead to rapid growth in sales of electric vehicles. Electric vehicles must grow together with the joint innovation of technology and business.
Tesla is a typical representative of the Silicon Valley industry thinking. It does not emphasize the gradual development of basic technology research, but attempts to find the nodes of coordinated development between industries from the application scenarios of new technologies, and then quickly bring the application of new technologies to the market.
In the new electric car, it also focuses on energy (storage), autonomous driving, car networking, sharing and electric. Under the influence of one variable giving birth to another, an industry has also spawned another industry change, and the new technology of electric vehicles has the opportunity to face the turning point of rapid growth for the first time. Electric vehicles really cause the anxiety of traditional car companies, because the trend of electric power and automatic driving, sharing, etc. happen at the same time.
In the 1990s, Toyota also introduced the RAV4 EV pure electric vehicle and the Prius hybrid vehicle. After the failure of the pure electric vehicle exploration, it turned into the development of the hybrid model. At that time, GM in the United States, after launching the first electric vehicle EV1, finally gave up the car under various pressures such as energy and other external environments, and chose to develop an extended-mix hybrid vehicle such as Volanda. This is the limitation of technological development brought about by a single environmental variable.
From this point of view, the subversive innovation of a new market is first broken from the industrial thinking.
Open and closed technology
The break of industrial thinking is often easy to face all kinds of difficulties and challenges. In other words, when you want to seek linkage breakouts at various fulcrums in the industry, it is often extremely difficult to start.
Industrial thinking sticks to the moat concept and uses a defensive style of play. After the successful development of hybrid technology, Toyota applied for hundreds of patents. The advantage is that Toyota has established sufficient advantages in the field of hybrid vehicles. For example, Toyota Hybrid has exceeded 10 million units worldwide. The downside is that because of the barriers and leading advantages of Toyota's patented technology, it is not good to bring technology popularization across the industry. The new technology has found a window of development through the tilt of national policies.
Tesla, which is extremely difficult to start, must adopt a technically open route. On June 12, 2014, Tesla CEO Musk published an article on the company's blog, announcing that Tesla is opening up hundreds of patents and promoting the advancement of electric vehicle technology in the spirit of the open source movement. For a while, the industry is at a loss.
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