Year-to-date (December 19), the communications industry fell 16.08%, ranking 20th among the 28 first-tier industries of Shenwan, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 11.76%. In the TMT industry, it is better than computers (-29.20%). The media (-30.41%) is weaker than electronics (-12.35%). The industry's overall P/E ratio (TTM_ overall method) is 52.1 times, which is higher than the average valuation of 15.4 times of all A shares, lower than electronic (67.3 times), higher than computer (49.5 times) and media (44.1 times), in the middle position. .
In 2017, the three major investment lines of the communications industry's turning point are becoming clearer.In the first three quarters of 2016, the communications industry realized operating income of 457.81 billion yuan, an increase of 8.76% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the parent company was 17.189 billion yuan, an increase of 9.99%. Although the capital expenditures of the three major domestic operators have dropped significantly, the overall net profit of the communications industry has grown steadily. In terms of sub-sectors, the performance of optical communications, cloud computing and big data sectors showed high growth. The growth rate of operating income was 36.33% and 37.66%, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company achieved growth rates of 95.89% and 60.75% respectively. . Among them, the growth rate of optical communication sector exceeded market expectations, mainly due to insufficient production capacity due to anti-dumping of light bar, higher price of fiber optic cable, and doubled net profit of the sector. Relevant stocks such as Hengtong Optoelectronics, Zhongtian Technology, and Xunxun Technology The year-to-date increase of more than 15% has significantly outperformed the communications industry.
2017 global operator capital expenditures turn to the corner, relatively optimistic but uncertain
We believe that the overall communication industry in 2017 should be better than 2016, mainly due to policy promotion: operators are mixed into the first batch of pilot lists, introducing Internet giants or direct traffic management, data management transformation, and fully forming a “cloud management terminalâ€. "Closed loop, industry form is expected to reshape; and technology cycle promotion: 5G standard development key stage, overseas operators in the second half of the year to achieve commercialization. In addition, there are two reasons: 1. Global market operators' capital expenditures are at the turning point, and the growth rate bottoms out. We expect the global communication equipment market to decline slightly by 3% in 2017, but capital expenditure is expected to bottom out in the second half of the year, 4.5G network expansion, 5G and IoT investment will start to increase; 2. Domestic manufacturers' share will increase The global market occupies half of the country (the wireless communication market, Huawei's market share is the first, reaching 35%; ZTE is rising steadily, from 6% in 2010 to 12%), and the performance is eye-catching.
At the same time, there are also uncertain factors: (1) The capital expenditures of the three major operators in China continue to decline, and the investment in China Mobile's FDD license and radio and television wireless network is uncertain, and the performance of the company based on the domestic market is under pressure; (2) the communication sector is absolutely Valuation is in the historical median, but after the market adjustment in 2016, the relative market valuation is at a historical low.
The three major investment lines in 2017: 5G, Internet of Things and optical communications
In 2017, the domestic traditional communication market will usher in new opportunities in the wireless and cable broadband sectors: 1,5G standards are entering a critical stage, and domestic enterprises such as Huawei and ZTE are beginning to grasp the core voice, and the future global market share will remain. Ascension, at the same time, patent licensing will change from corporate expenditure to income; 2, the Internet of Things tens of billions of new connections, become the next trillion market for operators. In 2017, NB-IOT will be officially commercialized. LTE-V will be fully frozen in March 2017. Commercial trials will begin in the second half of the year. Even 5G will be used first in smart cities and transportation. 3. In optical communication, China Mobile continues to exert its strength. In terms of fixed-line network, the number of users exceeded China Unicom for the first time in 2016. In 2017, the total number of users of China Telecom will be close. The demand for optical components and fiber-optic cables is still strong. With the surge of network traffic, the demand for optical transmission equipment is also dozens. More than 100 million yuan.
One of the main investment lines - 5G: the theme continues to ferment, the key technology will be applied to 4G networks
The 5G standard of the Polar code freeze has received the attention of the whole people. 5G (FifthGeneraTIon) is the abbreviation of the fifth generation of mobile communication, and the Internet of Things is considered in the development of 5G standards. According to the 3GPP's timetable, 5G will determine the Release15 early standard in September 2018 under the leadership of 3GPP, and determine the Release16 final standard from the end of 2019 to the beginning of 2020, but now there are indications that 5G will arrive in advance! Compared to 4G networks, 5G terminal side: Emphasis on the ability of chip and antenna, a variety of terminals come together; network side: C-RAN, D-RAN, macro base station networking mode is more diverse, the core layer is more flat; content side: VR, 4K, The Internet of Things and so on have become killer applications.
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