In-depth observation of China's PV market in 2011

When China's solar PV industry fell into the low point from 2008 to 2009, the entire industry chain was accused of “bubble”, “blindness” and “waste”, because few people dared to foresee that the industry had ushered in again after just one year. . The installed capacity of solar power generation systems in China's mainland jumped from 40MW in 2008 to 160MW in 2009, and to 486MW in 2010. If several large-scale PV power plants that were not included in production at the end of the year were added, they would certainly exceed 500MW.

The manufacturers that have made enough money in 2011 were supposed to be aggressive, but the industry has seen ambiguity and confusion. The most common question I heard at the “International Solar and Photovoltaic Conference” held in Shanghai on February 22-24 was: “What should I do next?”

Unsustainable External Demands In 2010, the global installed capacity of solar PV was about twice that of 2009. However, after experiencing two ups and downs in the solar photovoltaic industry in 2005-06 and 08-09, the industry has basically reached consensus on the fluctuations in market demand in 2011.

The most direct is from the judgment of the European market. So far, the largest market for solar photovoltaic industry is in Europe, especially Germany (which accounts for nearly half of the global installed capacity), Spain, France, Czech and Italy. It is expected that there will be many unfavorable factors affecting the market demand of various countries in 2011.

In Germany, the government’s promoter of the solar photovoltaic industry, the EEG (Renewable Energy Law), has a very specific reduction in the price of complete power supply systems. For example, for systems with less than 30 kW, the planned 2012 price must drop by more than 30%. The government is becoming more and more sensitive to the cost of early-stage investments, and it is gradually reducing its subsidies for solar power generation. Therefore, it is unlikely that there will be another blowout demand in 2010.

Spain has been plagued by its own economic problems, plus the solar industry has invested too much in the past two years. There is no hope of recovery for the time being. In order to learn more about the development of photovoltaic power generation in France, France has adopted a series of restrictive measures, including the freezing of a 3KW or more system project for three months, and encouraging the manufacture of complete sets of equipment in the French mainland. The Czech Republic's photovoltaic power generation input in 2010 accounted for 0.4% of GDP, and its power generation accounted for 3.3% of the country's total power generation. This is also a very high figure in Europe, and subsequent demand has stabilized. At present, there are many different voices in Italy, demanding to stop the rapid development of the solar energy industry, especially the call for setting ceilings for total installed capacity is increasingly strong, which casts a large shadow on the development of the country's solar energy industry.

Due to the visible shrinkage of major traditional market demand, global demand in 2011 is estimated to be 19-24 GW. However, only the production scale of China's solar PV industry has reached 26.6 GW in 2010, so the industry will obviously have a surplus. For Chinese companies, exports are bound to decrease. What about the road to boost domestic demand?

The game between business and government At present, China's solar energy industry, including companies and research institutions, are calling for a key issue - electricity prices. In 2011, the government’s approved electricity price of 0.7288 yuan/kWh was lower than market expectations. In some provinces and cities (such as some second-tier cities in Anhui), the electricity bill levied on enterprises is more than RMB 1/kWh.

Power generation companies generally believe that, like all new energy industries, the popularity of solar power generation equipment also requires prior investment and government subsidies, which is also an international practice. If electricity subsidies are not properly subsidized, there will be no profit from solar power generation. Naturally, companies are reluctant to increase the share of such loss-making transactions, and banks are unwilling to provide financing support.

Therefore, China's solar energy industry and power companies do not fully invest in the domestic solar energy market, and have been waiting to see the government's support measures such as increasing the purchase price.

The company only scrimps and is not stable. It is typical to ride on the economic boom in 2010 and all of them tend to purchase production equipment and raw materials that can bring significant benefits through short-term large-scale investment, instead of fostering long-term research and development, technology upgrading, and promoting the popularization of solar power plants. Wait.

Due to the fact that the development speed, power generation cost, and equipment manufacturing cost of several major projects and leading enterprises did not meet the government's expectations, at the beginning of 2011, the central government further reduced its support for the solar energy industry, including suspending the promotion of solar photovoltaic development. The "Golden Sun" project includes 64 projects, at least involving several billion yuan in subsidies.