In 1991, Sony (SONY) of Japan developed a commercial lithium-ion battery. In 1995, Toyota applied nickel-metal hydride batteries on the PRIUS hybrid vehicle. In this case, lithium-ion batteries were used in parallel. The vision has opened up unremitting exploration and experimentation for this industry. So far, nickel-metal hydride battery applications have been more than 20 years, Toyota Motor has developed to the extreme, and lithium-ion battery vehicle applications have begun commercialization.
In just over a decade, lithium-ion batteries have been used in vehicles. In fact, they have been and are undergoing several stages: exploration and accumulation, barbaric blowout, adjustment and reflection, three-country melee and orderly development. The triggering and starting of each phase are caused by policy changes, technological disputes and market turmoil.
As a witness and participant in the industry, it is actually looking at the past and present status with a sense of anxiety, but is grateful for the future development prospects. In order to sort out the past and the right and wrong, I want to review the past from the industry history and technology, understand the reality, and look forward to the future from the particularity of lithium-ion batteries. There are two articles in total, this article is the first one.
Follow the national policy (the "10th Five-Year Plan" to determine the development of electric vehicles, the research on the use of vehicle-mounted power batteries in 2001; the demonstration operation during the "11th Five-Year Plan" period; the line based on pure electricity during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, new energy The car has risen to the national strategy; the "13th Five-Year Plan" should be deepening the technology and the scale of the market), and the development of the power battery has been advanced, and it has gone through the following periods:
The first stage (2001~2008)
On the whole, this stage of lithium-ion battery is a period of initial development and accumulation, and only a few companies are deeply ploughing, persisting, and sticking to it. It should be said that at this stage, especially before 2006, there is not much experience to learn from (3C lithium-ion battery technology can be used for reference), which really belongs to the "original" period of technology, and some enterprises have tried and stopped.
The only demonstration is the Beijing Olympic Games (595 energy-saving and new energy vehicle applications, 50 lithium-ion battery Olympic buses), so that everyone can see the possibility of industrialization, and some companies have begun to transform into power batteries, gearing up and eager to try.
The second stage (2008~2011)
The 2010 Shanghai World Expo, the Guangzhou Asian Games, and the implementation of the national “Ten Cities and Thousands of Vehicles†program, several attractive “cakes†have spawned many battery factories, such as “springing upâ€, embarking on a short and smooth development path: technical homogeneity Quality control is poor. However, the market's "hunger and thirst" urged their barbaric growth, while the market's immaturity and the "short-term" of technological development time succumbed to the survival of these enterprises. At this stage, the technology of each battery factory can not be divided, how deep the foundation is not yet visible, and there is a "Glanham phenomenon" (things of low value will squeeze out higher-value things into the circulation field).
The third stage (2012~2013)
A sentence was applied: "Only if the tide fades, you can know who is swimming naked." The delay of the state subsidy policy and the adaptation of the route transformation have made the market demand unstable in the short term. At the same time, the problems of the first batch of demonstration battery have emerged, and the technical problems have been highlighted. This has combined to affect the weak demand and technical wait and see. ,swing. This has caused many "half-way" companies to "receive difficulties and retreat" and "take advantage of the opportunity to return to the vulgar"; some of the purely power-powered companies lack funds and are unsustainable and withdraw from the historical arena. Let everyone feel that the sales of 500,000 new energy vehicles in 2015 are out of reach.
At this stage, some solid technology companies have already been deposited.
The fourth stage (2014~2015)
The problems encountered in the third stage were short-lived throughout the historical context, but for some companies it was a permanent winter and failed to see the arrival of spring. From the macro level, the country has once again repositioned the new energy vehicle and upgraded to the national strategy (General Secretary Xi Jinping’s speech on new energy vehicles in 2014), which has injected a strong booster into the development of new energy vehicles, and the development of new energy vehicles has entered a fast track. , thus bringing a strong demand for power batteries. Especially in 2015, the production and sales volume of lithium-ion power batteries in a single year reached 17GWh. Each power battery manufacturer can be said to have full capacity and satisfactory performance. At the same time, many manufacturers have accelerated the expansion plan. Some enterprises have revived, and the salted fish has turned over. At the same time, some foreigners have decorated the facade and become a member of the industry.
It can be estimated that this wave blowout has similarities with the second stage. The battery factory is mixed and the quality is uneven. There will inevitably be quality and performance problems. The difference is that several enterprise technologies have been deposited for many years. The role of the industry leader.
The fifth stage (2016 -)
The development of abnormal fluctuations has brought quality products into the market; enterprises with slanted swords use policy gaps to defraud state subsidies; in the past, there have been many electric vehicle safety accidents in 2015, causing everyone to develop rapidly market and actual technology. There is no contradiction between the contradictions. Under the comprehensive factors, measures such as regulation, management, and regulation are inevitable to be applied. In this process, there will inevitably be a big wave of sand. From the aspects of product technology and after-sales service, there are three or six, etc., and several "oligarchous" enterprises are gradually produced. Leading the industry towards healthy development.
The “Recommended Model Catalogue for Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles†and the “Regulations for Automotive Power Battery Industryâ€, which were implemented by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, re-required and constrained battery companies and vehicles in a new round of instructions at the end of April, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. . According to incomplete statistics, there are currently more than 150 power battery companies, but our analysis shows that less than five in more than 10 years, most of which were established in the past three years. The development of technology requires competition and needs to be precipitated, so proper policy guidance is a must.
It seems that the application of all technologies in our country can not escape the innovation, marketization, disorderly competition, barbaric growth, market elimination and standardized management, the law of orderly development, and the power battery.
The good news is that we are already walking through the stage of barbaric growth and walking towards an orderly development stage.
Guangzhou Winson Information Technology Co., Ltd. , https://www.winsonintelligent.com