LED and 3D panel penetration into the low-end will become a hot commodity

Constrained by the consumer's demand for color TVs, the popularity of the improved type, the recession in real estate and the stock market, and the declining marginal effect of home appliances to rural areas, etc., the color TV market in 2010 was not as hot as previously expected.

According to forecast data released by Ovid Consulting in October, taking LCD TVs as the main force in the market as an example, the total retail volume of LCD TVs in 2010 will be around 33.6 million units, which is an increase of about 42% compared with the 23.59 million units in 2009. It's well below 80.5% in 2009.

Since the 2010 market is a foregone conclusion, more and more people in the industry have set their sights on next year. Which products and technologies will become hot spots in the market next year, which national policies will affect the development of the color TV market, and what new changes in the panel market will become issues of concern to everyone. In this regard, the author conducted a focused interview on industry experts, manufacturing companies, and channel merchants in the color TV field.

LED, 3D TVs penetrated into the middle and low end of the interview with a number of people in the industry, almost all respondents believe that next year, LED, 3D, smart TV will remain the 2011 flat-panel TV market hotspots, and LED, 3D TV market will There is a quantum breakthrough.

"The next year will be the stage of large-scale LED popularization. At present, the market share of LED is about 30%-40%. It is estimated that by the end of next year, LED will account for 80%-90% of the market share." Vice President of China Electronics Chamber of Commerce Secretary-General Lu Jiebo said.

For the new market characteristics of LED TVs next year, Cheng Gang, the engineer of Hisense Multimedia Development Center, gave his prediction: “LED products will quickly infiltrate from the high end to the middle and low end, the size will continue to move downward, and the price will continue to decline.”

In addition to LED TVs, the market prospects for 3D TVs next year are also generally optimistic.

"Because of the lack of content and the poor user experience of 3D TVs, the improvement of 3D technologies and 2D to 3D technologies will be the focus of market development next year, and the richness of content will also have greater development," Cheng said.

Zuo Yingjie, the CEO of the new seven-day electrical network, also expressed the same point of view: “3D will become a new bright spot after next year. With the warm-up in the second half of this year, there will be a larger increase in volume next year, and it may also be possible. It will bring about a new round of growth for plasma TVs. However, due to the limitation of 3D content sources, the market will have a slow and lag, and it will not be able to bring dividends immediately like LCD."

For smart TVs, LuiBerbo believes that smart TV is a point where all the major manufacturers at home and abroad are working hard, and it is also recognized as a big development trend. However, due to issues such as technology and profitability, there will be no blowout growth next year.

Rong Jun, deputy director of the Konka Institute, told the author: “The triple play policy is gradually clear and it will have a positive effect on the smart TV market. In terms of technology, applications closely related to consumer entertainment and life, such as: online shopping, online Applications such as payments will be our development focus."

The total sales will rationally fall. For the overall trend of the market will appear next year, Zuo Yingjie believes: "This year's color TV industry should be the beginning of an adjustment cycle.

In the past few years, the promotion of policies such as the popularization of LCDs and home appliances to the countryside, trade-in replacement, etc. has brought a dividend period to the company. LED can't bring about the upgrading of the whole industry like the LCD, and the policy of stimulating domestic demand also starts to decay. Now the whole industry should be a phase of decline adjustment. In this regard, domestic brands will perform more obviously, so this year's TV sets will appear. The phenomenon of collective decline in business performance. This phenomenon will continue and intensify in the coming years. ”

Lu Renbo believes that if the color TV market in the next year can grow by 30% this year, it is already quite good. The “two ends out” and the “incremental increase” are still important issues that companies need to solve urgently.

Zhao Maojun, research director of Ovid Consulting, predicts that the total sales volume of domestic LCD TVs in 2011 will reach more than 38 million units, an increase of about 14% year-on-year. The growth rate is a rational fall. The price of products will continue to decline due to technological progress, but because of LED The proportion of sales of backlight LCD TVs and 3D TVs has increased, and the overall market price may show signs of rising.

The color TV or the Chinese version of the ROHS Catalogue “The Flat Panel TV Energy Efficiency Limits and Energy Efficiency Ratings” standard will be implemented in December this year, but the actual start of labeling will be in March next year, which will accelerate the speed of LED adoption.” Say.

“In addition, at the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the first batch of “Key Management Catalogues” based on the “Management Methods for Pollution Control of Electronic Information Products”, including: mobile phones, fixed telephones, and printers. Once again, the government will give priority to purchasing products that pass the Chinese version of ROHS certification. This is likely to be a signal, from the current voluntary disclosure to enforcement. Once the color TV enters the Catalog, it will have a great impact on the industry." Lu edge wave added.

In contrast, the concerns of home appliance channel distributors are more practical. According to Yan Hongbing, Jiangxi Siping’s home appliance planning manager, “whether the subsidies for energy-saving benefits will include TV, household appliances and trade-in policies will have new changes, which will affect the actual color TV sales. Moreover, with the color energy efficiency rating policy. The implementation of rural consumers has also begun to change from the emphasis on price to the importance of branding, and now to the emphasis on function and energy conservation."

LED, 3D panel will become a popular commodity For most of the panels need to import the Chinese color TV industry, the panel market changes will have a direct and huge impact on the color TV market.

Zhao Maojun believes that with the successive launch of panel production lines such as BOE, China Panda and China Star Optoelectronics next year, the panel supply in the domestic market will increase.

Lu edge wave also believes: "The panel supply will be more abundant next year, and the overall price will still be a downward trend. But the specific situation depends on the performance of the market. Like the relatively mature size of 32 inches, the downside will not be Large, and 46 inches above the panel, there is still room for greater price cuts.

Yan Fanghong, deputy general manager of TCL Multimedia Research and Development Center, told the author that LED and 3D TV will be the main products of TCL next year. The demand for LED and 3D panels in the whole industry will also have a big improvement.