Whether or not we are willing to admit it, in fact, we are trapped in the double-dip recession of the semiconductor industry.
See how many of your colleagues are whispering between coffee and talking about how light the business is. How many emails do they receive? And what was their inventory in the fourth quarter? It is time to admit our position. Only in this way can we take action in time to respond to the upcoming situation.
The US Department of Labor’s report on Friday pointed out that US companies have added a total of 103,000 jobs in September this year – on the surface, after only adding a small number of jobs in August, this figure seems to be a positive one. Pointer. However, the added 45,000 jobs were in fact only due to the fact that Verizon’s employees who had gone on strike returned to work, and thus the statistics reflected in the adjustments. But this allows us to see more clearly that the so-called job creation has not changed at all. Economists predict that there must be an additional 150,000 jobs every month in the United States to keep pace with population growth. Calculate it yourself; we are still a long way off!
Less and less employment opportunities mean that consumer spending has also been greatly reduced, while two-thirds of the United States economy is supported by consumer spending. Therefore, this will lead to a vicious circle - the negative news of economic recession, layoffs, decline in consumer confidence, followed by a reduction in consumer spending, which will then lead to more negative news of recession and more layoffs.
The electronics industry has always depended on consumer spending. In July of this year, analysts predicted that Intel’s quarterly revenues ranged from $13.5 billion to $14.5 billion. Now look at Intel's third-quarter results, with revenues of $12.8 billion. Where are the optimistic analysts who were 90 days ago? Intel Corp. expects that the next quarter can only be kept at the same level at the most - between $12.8 billion and $13.3 billion. Whether it is the prediction of iSuppli, Gartner or SIA, the message they conveyed is the same: The current inventory level is high but demand is decreasing. This does not require finding a Ph.D. candidate to calculate what will happen next.
In the 1992 US presidential election, the former U.S. president Bill Clinton, who was the first to run for the presidency, used a golden campaign: "It's the economy, stupid." The American public paid attention to international diplomatic issues at that time. At the time of 1992, the unemployment rate in the United States quickly rose from 5.3% in 1989 to 7.5%, causing widespread public grievances. In response to this slogan of Clinton, he finally won the election and successfully entered the White House.
In 2007, the unemployment rate in the United States was 4.6%. Today, this figure has exceeded 9%.
The double-dip recession is currently known as the double-dip recession.
The global economy is starting to bottom out in the second half of 2009 from the worst recession and financial crisis since the Great Depression. At present, many people in the media and economics circles, including Soros, believe that the global economic recovery may lose momentum, and the “double bottom†recession is still a substantial threat.
Soros made the above statement at a speech in Budapest, Hungary. He said that it is not yet clear whether the next global economic downturn will occur in 2010 or 2011.
Therefore, the double bottomed downturn means that when the global economy has bottomed out, the economic recovery may lose momentum and will bottom out again in the near future, that is, a double-bottom W type recession.
See how many of your colleagues are whispering between coffee and talking about how light the business is. How many emails do they receive? And what was their inventory in the fourth quarter? It is time to admit our position. Only in this way can we take action in time to respond to the upcoming situation.
The US Department of Labor’s report on Friday pointed out that US companies have added a total of 103,000 jobs in September this year – on the surface, after only adding a small number of jobs in August, this figure seems to be a positive one. Pointer. However, the added 45,000 jobs were in fact only due to the fact that Verizon’s employees who had gone on strike returned to work, and thus the statistics reflected in the adjustments. But this allows us to see more clearly that the so-called job creation has not changed at all. Economists predict that there must be an additional 150,000 jobs every month in the United States to keep pace with population growth. Calculate it yourself; we are still a long way off!
Less and less employment opportunities mean that consumer spending has also been greatly reduced, while two-thirds of the United States economy is supported by consumer spending. Therefore, this will lead to a vicious circle - the negative news of economic recession, layoffs, decline in consumer confidence, followed by a reduction in consumer spending, which will then lead to more negative news of recession and more layoffs.
The electronics industry has always depended on consumer spending. In July of this year, analysts predicted that Intel’s quarterly revenues ranged from $13.5 billion to $14.5 billion. Now look at Intel's third-quarter results, with revenues of $12.8 billion. Where are the optimistic analysts who were 90 days ago? Intel Corp. expects that the next quarter can only be kept at the same level at the most - between $12.8 billion and $13.3 billion. Whether it is the prediction of iSuppli, Gartner or SIA, the message they conveyed is the same: The current inventory level is high but demand is decreasing. This does not require finding a Ph.D. candidate to calculate what will happen next.
In the 1992 US presidential election, the former U.S. president Bill Clinton, who was the first to run for the presidency, used a golden campaign: "It's the economy, stupid." The American public paid attention to international diplomatic issues at that time. At the time of 1992, the unemployment rate in the United States quickly rose from 5.3% in 1989 to 7.5%, causing widespread public grievances. In response to this slogan of Clinton, he finally won the election and successfully entered the White House.
In 2007, the unemployment rate in the United States was 4.6%. Today, this figure has exceeded 9%.
The double-dip recession is currently known as the double-dip recession.
The global economy is starting to bottom out in the second half of 2009 from the worst recession and financial crisis since the Great Depression. At present, many people in the media and economics circles, including Soros, believe that the global economic recovery may lose momentum, and the “double bottom†recession is still a substantial threat.
Soros made the above statement at a speech in Budapest, Hungary. He said that it is not yet clear whether the next global economic downturn will occur in 2010 or 2011.
Therefore, the double bottomed downturn means that when the global economy has bottomed out, the economic recovery may lose momentum and will bottom out again in the near future, that is, a double-bottom W type recession.
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