Why does the investor not go to the AI ​​conference?

"啪" another investor's business card into the box, Mecamdander founder Shao Tianlan helplessly smiled.

Originally, I came to participate in the Industry Fair to attract customers, but I also attracted more than 50 investment institutions to "learn". Shao Tianlan is quite "distressed": "I spent more than 200,000 exhibitors, a large number of customers every day. I often feel that I can't wait for it. I don't want to buy too many investors. I am even more tired."

It is estimated that at least 156 investors will come to the Fair this year, most of them coming for the first time.

Why are investors suddenly interested in the Industry Fair?

"We are late"

"In fact, we have to review, we are late." A well-known fund VP said "Ki Ziguang Nian".

In fact, opportunities in the industrial sector have not been lacking.

In 2016, China's industrial added value reached 2,478.6 billion yuan, accounting for more than one-third of GDP; the national industrial enterprises above designated size (the annual main business income of more than 20 million yuan) is close to 400,000, with a total profit of 6,880.32 billion yuan.

Industrial upgrading has become the trend of the times, and it has been seen five years ago.

Two key conditions were created at the time, one was the change in the labor factor.

In 2012, the working-age population in China fell for the first time.

In 2012, the number of working-age people aged 15 to 59 in China was 937 million, a decrease of 3.45 million from the end of the previous year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points.

In contrast, the average wages of blue-collar workers are rising.

At the same time, after the 80s, the workers of the post-90s began to become the core of the labor force. They are increasingly reluctant to engage in duplication, monotony, and high-risk work, which poses greater challenges to the company's labor management capabilities. Since then, the "labor shortage" news has frequently appeared in newspapers.

Another external condition is that the impact of the 2008 financial crisis has made developed countries re-recognize the importance of manufacturing. Germany proposed "Industry 4.0", and the United States, Britain, Japan, and France also proposed corresponding industrial plans, and developed countries have attracted manufacturing returns.

This allows China's manufacturing industry, which relies on the advantages of cheap labor to develop rapidly for more than 20 years, faces the “risk” and “machine” after the disappearance of the demographic dividend.

The danger is that the original advantages have been weakened and new advantages have not yet been formed. China's manufacturing industry is facing a “double attack” between the manufacturing transfer of Southeast Asian emerging markets with cheaper labor and the return of manufacturing in developed countries.

From the Yangtze River Delta to the Pearl River Delta, in recent years, the “manufacturing collapse tide” has appeared frequently: in December 2014, Suzhou Nokia mobile phone component supplier Shuhui Technology announced that it has stopped production, and the well-known mobile phone parts foundry Suzhou Lianjian Technology announced the closure; 2015 In January, Dongguan mobile phone component manufacturer Ossex Deshipu Electronics closed down, and the boss owed a debt of 135 million yuan. In Wenzhou, which is famous for making small glasses such as glasses, shoes and lighters, it has been since 2009. Dozens of processing factories are closed down every year.

"The upgrade of China's industry, what you see may be 'very important', and what we see is 'life and death'." Lu Weiru, founder of Kunlun Data, an industrial big data company, said.

The opportunity is: when the market is not good and supply exceeds demand, the factory begins to care about internal efficiency improvement and cost control.

Some high-end talents began to return to manufacturing.

Observing students in engineering and other fields of automation and precision in domestic universities, there are faults in the direction of graduation: Most of the graduates before 1999 were engaged in the industry, but almost all of them joined the Internet in the next ten years. After the 2009 level, with the development of the Internet In stability, these people are beginning to return to traditional factories. “In the factory, high-tech talents use cutting-edge technology in all aspects of the production line, sometimes helping factories to increase efficiency by 20% or more, which will fully affirm their value.” Huachuang Capital Investors said in AD.

Under the "crisis coexist" situation, on May 8, 2015, the State Council issued the "Made in China 2025", pointing out that the manufacturing industry is the foundation of the country, the instrument of rejuvenating the country, and the foundation of a strong country, and strives to establish a new year in the founding of the People's Republic of China. At that time, China will be built into a manufacturing power that leads the development of the world's manufacturing industry.

As a result, 2015 became the most difficult year for “Made in China”, and it also became the first year of “China’s wisdom”.

Huge "import substitution" market

This year's Industry Fair, although almost all the well-known funds come for the first time, but can be divided into two categories: one is around 2015, saw the big opportunities for industrial transformation and upgrading, and took the initiative to find industrial upgrading projects; The class is following the investment ideas of high-tech fields such as artificial intelligence, and has caught up with the industry.

The Real Fund is in the first category. They visited the Yangtze River Delta region and learned that many factories have reached the edge of losses and are very willing to purchase information systems to increase production capacity and efficiency. Therefore, the real grid began to invest in investment in 2015.

The Huachuang Capital Technology Group also noticed the industrial field at the same time. They made a quadrant map, the horizontal axis is the pain point, judging whether the industry lacks technology; the vertical axis is how big the market is. "When we draw this axis, the industry appears in our quadrant," said the AD.

The market prospects in the industrial sector are huge. Only the annual output value of industrial robots is close to 100 billion. With the disappearance of the demographic dividend, the market demand is expanding exponentially: According to the 13th Five-Year Plan, it is estimated that by 2020, the annual sales volume of industrial robots in China will reach 150,000. Taiwan, but this number has been achieved this year, and it is expected to increase by three to five times next year.

A certain US dollar fund told "Zizi Guangnian": "In the past, the domestically produced industrial robots used imported parts. Now domestically, there are some fine processing and fine manufacturing. Not only are these manufacturers in China starting to use domestically produced zeros. Parts, including the four major families (Fanako in Japan, Yaskawa Electric in Japan, ABB in Switzerland, and KUKA in Germany) also started to use."

Each of the four major families sells 20,000 units a year in China. ABB sells 30,000 units this year, and the most domestically produced ones are more than 2,000 units and 3,000 units. There is room for improvement in penetration.

This means a huge "import substitution" market

Investors who previously focused on artificial intelligence and big data have also seen opportunities to penetrate into the industrial sector. These "newcomers" who have not touched the factory equipment in the past have also come to the Industry Fair, hoping to deepen their understanding of the industry.

Compared with the science and technology events such as the AI ​​Conference, the Industry Fair gives people a sense of simplicity, while the real product display is more likely to help investors to closely observe and judge how technology is going to land in the industry.

"In such a professional exhibition, you will find that the companies we know are actually just a few of the many companies, just knowing the 'sounds that have milk to eat'." Shun is the vice president of capital, Meng Xing said.

Gap and effort

Entrepreneurs in the industrial sector favored by investors are mainly attributed to two factions: “Haigui” and “Indigenous”.

Huachuang is the investor of Mecamand mentioned in the opening paragraph. Founder Shao Tianlan is a typical returnee: graduated from Tsinghua University Software College, students flew to Silicon Valley, worked for Apple, Google, Facebook, etc., but he chose to study industrial robots at the Technical University of Munich, Germany, and is well-known in Germany. The robotics company has been working for several years and has been involved in the development of advanced collaborative robots.

Around Munich, the top universities and companies such as Munich University of Technology, German Aerospace Center Robotics, KUKA, and Siemens have produced the world's most advanced industrial robots, compliance control, human-machine collaboration, SLAM and Industry 4.0 technologies. Shao Tianlan also saw the forefront of the world's machine level in such an environment.

"Most of the domestic enterprises still think of 'import substitution'. I feel that the foreigner's products have been done very well. We can imitate them. They don't know what the next direction is."

He realized that this was a market gap. So he returned to China to create Mecamand, providing 3D vision, trajectory planning, intelligent programming models and other technologies around industrial robots, hoping to raise the level of intelligence of industrial robots to unprecedented heights.

Heihu Technology, which is jointly invested by Zhenge and Huachuang, is also a typical “haigui high education”: founder Zhou Yuxiang graduated from Dartmouth College in the United States. After graduation, he invested in mergers and acquisitions at Barclays Investment Bank and was exposed to a large number of manufacturing companies. He found that the main gap between China and the West is not in machine equipment, but in management ideas:

At that time, a Chinese state-owned enterprise acquired a German auto parts company. The Chinese management personnel were accustomed to “walking management”, that is, by constantly moving around to find problems, but the German company had already done the scheduling, quality, and Logistics, production and other data are all collected and monitored in real time. “Their management spends more time solving problems than finding problems.” Seeing this opportunity, Zhou Yuxiang chose to return to China to start a business.

And another type of project that grew out of the traditional industry has begun to receive the attention of investors.

Huang Mingming, the founder of Mingshi Capital, once listed in the "Kite Light Year", only in the field of consumer electronics, there are a number of market value of 500 to 200 billion, such as Sunny Optical, AAC, Gore Acoustics, Lansi Technology, and Ou Feiguang. The company, "nearly one is brought up by VC. This is a shame for China to make venture capital."

The Xuanyu technology of Mingshi Investment is exactly from the 3C production line. When the mobile phone order comes, the factory will not stop production for almost 24 hours. It will quickly produce tens of thousands of mobile phones. Once the blade is broken, stop the production line and find the bad blade, find defective products, and it will cost out in a few minutes. great influence. What Xuan Yu team does is to use machine learning to predict when it is necessary to change the knife. The production line downtime can be shortened to a few minutes. Obviously, if the team does not have rich experience in the industry, don’t say “shooting the brain”, the outsider may be stationed. The factory could not find such a demand in two or three months.

Of course, once a startup sinks into the industry, it must be faced with a moat that has been established by traditional industries. In this regard, startups cannot be too self-sufficient.

"Probably because of the flexible mechanism or advanced technology of the startup company, we will temporarily win some advantages, but in fact, you do not have the soil of natural advantages. What you do is not something that big companies have not noticed. In fact, everyone is paying attention." Some startup companies specialize in industrial testing, but they can really see it after the Industrial Fair. In fact, big companies also attach great importance to this piece, and have done a complete integration plan and flow plan.

"The industry is originally people's, not our AI. In the same situation, people are willing to choose a relationship of trust. If you are an apple, will you continue to choose Bozhong or choose a new supplier?" One investor said.

Zheng Ge believes that the team of traditional industry, including technology accumulation including artificial intelligence, "is behind the cutting-edge scientific and technological talents." Yin Le, an investor in Zhenge Fund, said that most of the traditional industrial enterprises are mainly customized projects, which leads to high labor costs. The real-time collaboration and data analysis SaaS software built by Black Lake is a universal standardized product. “Many companies can By sharing this system, you can make some modules, the company can choose, and the delivery becomes very easy."

Zhou Yuxiang, the founder of Black Lake Technology, calculated the account for "Kizi Guangnian": even if the country's 400,000 industrial enterprises above designated size only pay 10,000 for the Black Lake system, it is also a market of 4 billion. "In fact, Our average customer price is more than 100,000 per year."

Zhang Cunliang, director of Liqun Automation Marketing, told Zongzi Guangnian that although they still do traditional industries such as automation and industrial robots, they use new technologies to redesign the underlying architecture, including deep learning combined with machine vision. Introduced into the defect detection automation industry, "We are not chasing big companies on the original track, but opening up new tracks to re-run. On this track, we are likely to lead."

On either side, we believe that the industrial sector must be “grounded”:

In order to understand the pain points at the execution level of the factory, Zhou Yuxiang entered the friend's factory as a worker. From 8:00 to 8:00, he and the workers soaked together, and they opened the machine, checked the goods, assembled, printed, etc., and all the production lines ran through it. , plastic products to mechanical processing to toy manufacturing, etc. have done. This helps him make better decisions.

“While the wages of workers are only three or five thousand a month, they like to play games, save money and buy the best mobile phones, and even many people’s mobile phones are the latest iPhones. I am inspired by the age of APP and mobile phones. Can we use the mobile phone as a collection and receiving point for factory information? So there is a collaborative system that we manufacture today in Black Lake."

Blind "machine substitution" is a misunderstanding

It is worth mentioning that we should not overstate the role of cutting-edge technology such as AI, and underestimate the complexity and length of industrial upgrading.

I remember that at the end of 2011, Foxconn Chairman Guo Taiming publicly stated that he would assemble 1 million robotic arms in 2014 and complete the first batch of automated factories within 5 to 10 years, the so-called “Million Robot Project”. As of the end of 2016, five years later, Foxconn only assembled about 40,000 units.

Expert analysis, the main reasons for failure include insufficient robot accuracy, incompetence in full-line operation, high upgrade and maintenance costs, and so on.

Ning Zhenbo, Principal Consultant of China Aviation Industry Corporation Information Technology Center, pointed out in the 2017 China Jiangsu Intelligent Factory Planning and Construction Reporting Conference and the Inaugural Meeting of the Intelligent Manufacturing Professional Committee of the Jiangsu Provincial Engineers Society: If everyone mistakenly believes that intelligent manufacturing is “machine substitution” "The lessons left by Foxconn are already deep enough.

The degree of automation is not as high as possible. It is necessary to realize a reasonable division of labor and collaborative work of people, machines and robots in order to maximize production efficiency. In other words, in the factory floor, what is needed by people, people do it; what is needed by the machine, let the machine do; what is needed by the robot, let the robot do the current stage, intelligent manufacturing still Should adhere to the principle of "human-machine cooperation, people-oriented".

Ning Zhenbo believes that intelligent manufacturing begins with “state perception.” To achieve true intelligent manufacturing, three basic conditions must be met: one is cheap sensors, the other is digitalization, everything can be digitized, and the third is networking. Everything that can be connected.

China is the only industrial country in the world with all the large, medium and small classifications of the United Nations. It has 39 industrial categories, 191 medium categories and 525 subcategories, forming a world-wide industrial system with complete industry. It is precisely because China's industrial categories are numerous and complete, relying on pure imitation and "takenism" will not work.

"Bringing Germany's 'Industry 4.0' can't solve half of our problems, because their industrial categories are incomplete and too few; the American 'Industrial Internet' can't be taken, their categories are not complete, and there are many. , can't give us too much reference." Ning Zhenbo said.

In other words, the thrust of any kind of external force on the manufacturing industry is far less than the imagination and magic of people. The real "intelligent manufacturing" will inevitably sink, slowly, and focus on the long-term future.

Opportunity in the "deep water area"

In October of this year, the research department of CICC released a series of reports "PRIME China's manufacturing booming era", depicting the "heyday era" of China's manufacturing product upgrades, R&D technology upgrades, industry upgrades, market upgrades, and efficiency upgrades.

Nowadays, AI is still hot, but the repeated AI conference has gradually made people unable to see surprises. Investment people generally believe that sinking to the vertical industry is the real opportunity for AI.

Meng Xing said that the current domestic technology companies are centered around the relatively concentrated industries such as security and finance, but there are many teams in the United States that have entered the agricultural and production industries. The artificial intelligence technology itself must be “breaked up” and the return generated in the industry will be even greater. “Technical personnel's dimension reduction and cooperation with traditional industries is a scene with more room for development.”

In Meng Xing's view, industry is likely to become the next large-scale landing scene of AI.

Every investor is looking for a unicorn. Will it appear in the industrial sector?

Huachuang is optimistic about this because foreign uptake and GE's predix have already run. But Huachuang also said that the harvest may take at least five years or even 2025. "Investors who do this line need to be very patient."

Industry is not an area that can “make quick money”. Its logic is different from that of the Internet. It needs one factory to smash and transform it on different types of production lines. Even if it is fast, it will not appear to be more than a dozen in a year. Double the situation.

Huang Mingming told "Yi Zi Guang Nian" that in the face of other areas of "dang jingle doubling" investment, can not be jealous, but also to focus on long-term megatrends, to do "friends with time". "If you want to understand one thing, you can do your own focus area, it is already the top 1% fund in the world."

For example, Dachen Ventures, which has always been known for its low profile, has been deeply rooted in the industry for 16 years, and its exit rate and return rate far exceed those of some big dollar funds.

In the Ming dynasty, from the earliest information level connection (outside the industry), to the purchase and sale of products, the docking of services such as O2O (the tertiary industry), and then to the improvement of the efficiency of enterprise service software (second industry) ), B2B and other forms of trading to the deep optimization of the enterprise supply chain (first and second industry), along this line of thought and further can be found: the next infiltration target of technology should be directly involved in the production and decision-making process of enterprise products Improve the production efficiency and decision-making ability of enterprises.

In fact, from the Internet era, the step-by-step development of science and technology is to gradually combine the offline industry with the “deep exploration” process information is the shallowest layer, Baidu; then down is the transaction, Ali; then go down is Warehousing and distribution, Jingdong; further down is the main line of IT systems, data services, supply chain, etc.

Science and technology are infiltrating into the industry from shallow to deep. The growth of the new giant is not because it has replaced the old giants, but because the battlefield has expanded and grown up from the "deep water zone."

History is always similar. The large-scale informatization process in the industrial 3.0 era is coming to an end, which requires that technology practitioners and investors need to participate more quickly in the transformation process of the real economy, and will not fall behind in the next cycle.

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