"12th Five-Year Plan" is about to start electricity industry to be wary of unfavorable factors

This year marks the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” and is also the year of recovery after China’s financial crisis. In the face of new changes and new features from both domestic and foreign economies, how China's electrician industry can improve its ability to resist risks and consolidate and expand its achievements in dealing with financial crises is particularly important in the coming 12th Five-Year Plan period.

situation

Good economic operation

The electrician industry has gone from the “restorative growth” at the beginning of the year to a true “restoring growth” stage. Not only did it get rid of the “negative growth” of the previous year, but it also fully surpassed the best level of the same period before the financial crisis since the third quarter, regardless of the total volume of imports and exports, imports, exports, export delivery values, or trade surpluses. Among them, the export competitiveness of some high-end equipment in China has increased, and the export of power generation equipment has accounted for about 15% of the annual output. More strikingly, Shanghai Electric Group signed a contract with India's Prudential Group on the export of 36 sets of 660,000 kilowatts of supercritical units on October 28. The contract amounted to US$ 8.29 billion.

"The current economic situation in the machinery industry is generally good." Cai Weici, executive vice president of the China Machinery Industry Federation, said at the "2010 Mechanical Industry Economic Situation Report" that "the machinery industry is expected to achieve a rapid growth of more than 30% in the year." Looking ahead to the next year, the difficulty of continuing to maintain rapid growth will increase significantly. The growth rate is expected to drop significantly from this year."

The overall economic performance of the machinery industry is good, and the electrician industry as its second largest sub-industry has naturally contributed. In its "Electrical Industry Economic Operational Analysis Report for the First Three Quarters of 2010," the China Electrical Industry Association stated that: In the first three quarters of 2010, the economic performance of the electrical industry was better than expected at the beginning of the year: Production and sales continued to pick up momentum in the first half of the year. The “V” shaped reversal pattern was further confirmed; foreign trade indicators such as export delivery value, import volume, export volume, and total import and export volume have been greatly improved; gross profit has achieved an ultra-high growth rate of over 35%; Of the major products monitored and monitored by key statistics, more than 90% of products were increased year-on-year.

alert

Industry highlights bottlenecks

However, while the overall trend of the industry is positive, it is also necessary to be alert to unfavorable factors.

Some problems in the machinery industry in 2010 are worth noting: Although the growth rate is high, it is now falling month by month; the adverse consequences of excessive competition in some industries begin to show; the trend of import growth higher than exports is worrying; high-end equipment is still needed. Further independent innovation.

It is understood that after a continuous production of 100 million kilowatts for several consecutive years, new orders for the power generation equipment industry in China have been insufficient, which has become a major contradiction in the industry's difficulty in maintaining year-on-year growth. In fact, after the power generation equipment, this year's power transmission manufacturing industry also has the contradiction of insufficient orders, oversupply, and vicious competition.

Although the transformer and high-voltage switch industries have not crossed the production peak as the power generation equipment industry has, and there are some abnormal factors in this year's difficult situation, the serious surplus of its production capacity is already a severe reality.

In the wire and cable industry, a large number of medium and low-end products not only have a serious excess production capacity, but also caused vicious competition in the industry. The “suicide” practices in industries such as cutting corners and shoddy goods also frequently occur.

At the same time, the export prospects of middle and low-end products in the electrical industry are not very optimistic.

Electrical products have always been the leading products in the export of mechanical products, but in recent years, middle and low-end electrical products are suffering more and more trade frictions, especially in the context of the RMB exchange rate entering the upstream channel, simply relying on the expansion of traditional middle and low-end products. Exports have become increasingly infeasible. Cai Weichai stated that "the road to finding a breakthrough bottleneck has become a top priority for the electrician industry."

prediction

External demand to stimulate strong product exports

This year, China still maintains the continuity and stability of fiscal and monetary policies. On the whole, the liquidity of money is still strong, and the money supply is still relatively abundant. It is expected that the policy environment will continue to be favorable to the development of various industries in the first year of the 12th Five-Year Plan.

According to the analysis of China Electrical Appliance Industry Association, under the background of the development of smart grid, the market demand formed by power construction is still strong, and the electrician industry has ample room for development and sufficient power.

The recovery of the world economy and the escalation of external demand have also further boosted the growth of exports of electrical products in China. Since the beginning of this year, the world economy is recovering, and the demand for electromechanical products in China is also gradually growing. Among them, the performance of emerging economies and North America is even more pronounced.

Experts predict that the good situation of the rapid growth of external demand will continue into next year. This is good news for China's electrical industry, which accounts for nearly 20% of total exports and sales.

“The next year is the first year of the 12th Five-Year Plan. It is also the first year that the central government has explicitly recommended 'scientific development' as the theme of national economic and social development. The electrician industry should be closely linked to 'high-end, innovation, foundation, integration, and green'. The ten words, do a good job in structural adjustment of this article, strive to make the industry continue to maintain a steady and rapid growth." Cai Weici stressed.

Association recommendations

Pay attention to the wire and cable industry

Overcapacity

China Electrical Appliance Industry Association

In recent years, China's wire and cable industry has the following major problems: First, China's current wire and cable industry, a serious excess production capacity of low-end products; Second, regardless of the country has built and under construction cross-linked cable production capacity serious excess actual situation Large quantities of vertical tower production lines are still being introduced, resulting in outstanding problems such as redundant construction, capital wastage and idle capacity; Third, the vicious competition in the low-end product areas due to homogenization of products has led to low-price competitive marketing, shoddy manufacturing, and shoddy packaging. Frequent occurrences have caused quality problems to become chronic problems in the industry. Fourth, due to insufficient production capacity of high-end products, most high-end products rely on imports. Even if some high-voltage cables are produced domestically, there are important raw materials such as cross-linked polyethylene ultra-clean insulating materials. Relying solely on imports, this has become a major factor restricting the autonomous production of high-voltage cables in China.

In response to the above issues, the following suggestions are made: First, it is recommended that relevant government departments strengthen industrial planning and policy guidance. We must focus on managing well and make good use of government investment at all levels. We should fully listen to the opinions of industry associations in the process of examination and approval of new construction and expansion projects. The proposal is to prevent duplicate construction and repeated introduction, especially to prevent overcapacity. The second is that administrative departments for industry and commerce, quality supervision and inspection, and other government departments must strengthen supervision and, if necessary, authorize industry associations to supervise and inspect the serious quality problems and vicious competition problems that appear in the market, in order to standardize the market competition order and purify the market environment. Third, it is proposed that government departments in charge, especially the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, take the lead in organizing production enterprises, universities and research institutes to participate in the research and development of important raw materials to break the bottleneck that restricts the independent production of high-voltage cables in China and promote domestic cables. The health of the industry is coordinated and developed. Fourth, the relevant departments are advised to continue to introduce preferential policies for encouraging the use of domestically produced raw materials and equipment while implementing the first set of domestically produced policies, and gradually improve the corresponding loss compensation and risk sharing mechanisms so as to provide green light for domestic raw materials and equipment to enter key projects.

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