According to the DisplaySearch Quarterly Advanced Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report, the global TV market demand has further decreased. In 2011, total TV shipments did not increase compared to 2010, and is expected to remain at 244 million units, of which 240 million units will be shipped by LCD TVs and 17 million units will be shipped by plasma TVs. The forecast is based on the reduction of TV manufacturers' business goals for this year and the demand of manufacturers for major parts and components of the sales holiday is also lower than previously estimated demand.
"As the economy continues to slump, consumers are more cost-effective, and market demand in North America and Western Europe is lower than expected," said Paul Gagnon, Director of North American TV research at DisplaySearch. "The growth of emerging markets is good but not enough to make up for the declining developed markets." As a result, we have lowered our forecast for shipments of LCD TVs and plasma TVs."
Despite the flat demand in the TV market in 2011, flat-panel TVs (excluding CRT technology and rear-projection technology) still maintain an annual growth rate of 6%. As high-end TV prices continue to fall, and manufacturers use low-cost solutions to quickly replace CRT TVs in emerging markets, it is expected that flat-panel TVs will grow by 9% in 2012.
LCD TV is still the mainstream model, while more products are introduced into LED backlight
The shipment of LCD TVs will increase from 192 million units in 2010 to 206 million units in 2011, which is lower than the expected shipment of 211 million. This is also the total TV shipment forecast. The key factor in the value reduction.
Gagnon added: “LCD TVs account for more than 80% of global TV shipments. Despite recent declines in LCD panel prices, panel makers, OEMs, and TV brands have all reduced their 2011 sales. The LCD TV market demand will continue to be concerned, but overall, the growth rate in the past few years will not exceed 10%."
LED and 3D functions keep the average price of LCD TVs stable
With the increase in the share of emerging functional applications such as LED backlighting and 3D, the price of LCD TVs in 2011 was very stable, falling only 7% in volume-weighted prices. Although the increase in shipments is slow, total shipments this year will remain the same as last year. The total revenue in 2012 will increase slightly, but it will gradually decline after 2013. LED backlighting accounted for a slight drop of 46% in LCD TV shipments in 2011, but is expected to become the mainstream backlight model in 2012 and will account for nearly 100% of the total in 2015.
Plasma TV grows slowly
The increase in shipments of plasma TVs will begin to slow in the second quarter of 2011, with an annual decline of 6%, and will decline by a double-digit percentage per quarter in mid-2012. As the price of LCD TVs has fallen more than plasma TVs, the price difference between the two has narrowed, and the proportion of LCD TVs has increased in many dimensions. For example: In the second quarter of 2010, a 42-inch 1080p plasma TV was 32% cheaper than a 42-inch 1080p 120HZ LED LCD TV, but by the second quarter of 2011, the price difference narrowed to 9%. In 2011, total shipments of plasma TVs were 17 million units, a decrease of 9%, and a decrease of around 5-6% per year.
OLED TV will enter the market in 2012
According to the current OLED development forecast, OLED TVs will enter the market in late 2012, adding to the market competition of more than 40-inch models. However, due to the high prices and the limited number of products, by 2015, it will account for only 2.5% of market share in the 40-inch and above market. Currently, the price of new OLED TVs is expected to be 2-3 times higher than that of high-end LED LCD TVs.
In emerging markets such as China, Asia Pacific, Latin America, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa, flat-panel TVs will continue to grow rapidly in the next four years, with an average annual growth rate of 11%, while developed markets will decline by an average of 1% per year. With the post-emergence of the Indian market, the Asia-Pacific region will become the strongest growth market.
Although the growth of 3D TVs in the North American market was lower than expected, shipments of 3D TVs in emerging markets and Europe were better than expected, and total global 3D TV shipments will increase slightly. The market share of 3D TVs in North America is expected to be 11%, which accounts for 14% in Western Europe and 12% in China. Since North American consumers have a clear preference for 3D features for models over 40 inches, North America will continue to be the region with the highest penetration rate of 3D TVs. In 2011, the global shipment of 3D TVs was 22 million units. By 2015, shipments will reach 100 million units.
The DisplaySearch Q3'11 Quarterly Advanced Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report covers nearly 60 brands and TV shipments across all regions. Forecast 16 quarter TV costs, prices and design.
"As the economy continues to slump, consumers are more cost-effective, and market demand in North America and Western Europe is lower than expected," said Paul Gagnon, Director of North American TV research at DisplaySearch. "The growth of emerging markets is good but not enough to make up for the declining developed markets." As a result, we have lowered our forecast for shipments of LCD TVs and plasma TVs."
Despite the flat demand in the TV market in 2011, flat-panel TVs (excluding CRT technology and rear-projection technology) still maintain an annual growth rate of 6%. As high-end TV prices continue to fall, and manufacturers use low-cost solutions to quickly replace CRT TVs in emerging markets, it is expected that flat-panel TVs will grow by 9% in 2012.
LCD TV is still the mainstream model, while more products are introduced into LED backlight
The shipment of LCD TVs will increase from 192 million units in 2010 to 206 million units in 2011, which is lower than the expected shipment of 211 million. This is also the total TV shipment forecast. The key factor in the value reduction.
Gagnon added: “LCD TVs account for more than 80% of global TV shipments. Despite recent declines in LCD panel prices, panel makers, OEMs, and TV brands have all reduced their 2011 sales. The LCD TV market demand will continue to be concerned, but overall, the growth rate in the past few years will not exceed 10%."
LED and 3D functions keep the average price of LCD TVs stable
With the increase in the share of emerging functional applications such as LED backlighting and 3D, the price of LCD TVs in 2011 was very stable, falling only 7% in volume-weighted prices. Although the increase in shipments is slow, total shipments this year will remain the same as last year. The total revenue in 2012 will increase slightly, but it will gradually decline after 2013. LED backlighting accounted for a slight drop of 46% in LCD TV shipments in 2011, but is expected to become the mainstream backlight model in 2012 and will account for nearly 100% of the total in 2015.
Plasma TV grows slowly
The increase in shipments of plasma TVs will begin to slow in the second quarter of 2011, with an annual decline of 6%, and will decline by a double-digit percentage per quarter in mid-2012. As the price of LCD TVs has fallen more than plasma TVs, the price difference between the two has narrowed, and the proportion of LCD TVs has increased in many dimensions. For example: In the second quarter of 2010, a 42-inch 1080p plasma TV was 32% cheaper than a 42-inch 1080p 120HZ LED LCD TV, but by the second quarter of 2011, the price difference narrowed to 9%. In 2011, total shipments of plasma TVs were 17 million units, a decrease of 9%, and a decrease of around 5-6% per year.
OLED TV will enter the market in 2012
According to the current OLED development forecast, OLED TVs will enter the market in late 2012, adding to the market competition of more than 40-inch models. However, due to the high prices and the limited number of products, by 2015, it will account for only 2.5% of market share in the 40-inch and above market. Currently, the price of new OLED TVs is expected to be 2-3 times higher than that of high-end LED LCD TVs.
In emerging markets such as China, Asia Pacific, Latin America, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa, flat-panel TVs will continue to grow rapidly in the next four years, with an average annual growth rate of 11%, while developed markets will decline by an average of 1% per year. With the post-emergence of the Indian market, the Asia-Pacific region will become the strongest growth market.
Although the growth of 3D TVs in the North American market was lower than expected, shipments of 3D TVs in emerging markets and Europe were better than expected, and total global 3D TV shipments will increase slightly. The market share of 3D TVs in North America is expected to be 11%, which accounts for 14% in Western Europe and 12% in China. Since North American consumers have a clear preference for 3D features for models over 40 inches, North America will continue to be the region with the highest penetration rate of 3D TVs. In 2011, the global shipment of 3D TVs was 22 million units. By 2015, shipments will reach 100 million units.
The DisplaySearch Q3'11 Quarterly Advanced Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report covers nearly 60 brands and TV shipments across all regions. Forecast 16 quarter TV costs, prices and design.
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