The Chinese LED industry started in the 1970s. In the early Chinese LED industry, LED chips and chip manufacturing were short, and the LED chips used depended on imports. However, after more than 30 years of development, it has now constituted an intact industrial chain from upstream epitaxy and chip manufacturing to mid-stream and downstream packaging applications.
LED upstream system is formed as a planning focus
On the one hand, it has fierce expectations for the future market. On the other hand, it has active cooperation with government policies at all levels. In the upstream extension and chip manufacturing, which is regarded as the “soft rib†of China's LED industry, it has absorbed a large amount of capital. Foreign companies such as Sanan, Dehao Runda, and Blu-ray have all expanded their production or established new factories. LED giants outside the mainland have also changed their past prudence and accelerated planning in mainland China. A number of LED manufacturers in Taiwan, such as Jingdian, Dingyuan and Cree, SEMILEDs and other global giants in the United States have already established plans or factories in mainland China. Mainland China has become the fastest growing region for LED upstream capacity in the world.
In the process of adjusting and optimizing the LED industry in China from time to time, the scope of China's epitaxy and chip companies will further expand in the next few years. By August 2010, China had 69 LED extension and chip companies (including more than 20 under construction or programs). Among the companies that used to be consumed or under construction, 48 touched the LED center link and chip manufacturing, and more than 10 focused on LED chip manufacturing.
Key equipment MOCVD supply panic
MOCVD is the key equipment for epitaxial wafer growth in the most central part of LED, and it is also the largest single investment in manufacturing. Currently, manufacturers of industrialized consumption MOCVD equipment are limited, with a high level of concentration, mainly in the recruitment network of Chinese college teachers. The road to localization of MOCVD equipment in China is not going smoothly. It can only consume small equipment for scientific research. At present, there are no MOCVD equipment manufacturers that can provide mature industrial consumption, but recently there are several domestic equipment research and consumption units. A timetable for the localization of the equipment is given, which is waiting.
Driven by the rapid development of the global LED industry, in the past one or two years, MOCVD equipment has been in a state of supply panic, and the arrival period of equipment has been extended from time to time. Especially in the case of complete dependence on imports, the current delivery time of equipment in mainland China is 6-9 months, and even longer. The suppliers of MOCVD in China are mainly concentrated in two countries, Veeco in the US and AIXTRON in Germany.
In 2010, the number of new MOCVD devices in the world was driven by the LED backlights in the LCD TV, and the largest increase in LCD TV manufacturing in Korea was followed by Taiwan. According to SEMI statistics, China's MOCVD has increased by about 177 units this year, ranking third in the world. In addition, according to SEMI statistics and analysis, the MOCVD supply situation is separated. In 2011, China's MOCVD new share is expected to reach 40% of the world, while other geographical increments will adhere to or fall to the same level as in 2010.
The problem of overcapacity does not need to be overfired
The rapid development of China's LED industry seems to be overflowing with an atmosphere of overheating. Upstream manufacturers have expanded their production or proposed new plant plans. The central government has also participated in the LED industry chase. The extremely stimulating policies such as MOCVD equipment subsidies and large-scale purchase orders have been introduced to create a local LED industry. . At the same time, we also saw the effect of practice. The number of new factory buildings and MOCVD plans was high from time to time. The “first†and “maximum†slogans are also common in various news headlines.
At this time, I worried that the sound of overcapacity in China's LED upstream will start to increase, or question or criticize, and want to pour a cold water for the hot Chinese LED industry. It is not acknowledgable that China's upstream production capacity in the next few years, especially the blue-green optical epitaxy and chip production capacity, is likely to be oversupplied depending on the planned capacity of the local area and the MOCVD solution. The author thinks that proper warning is necessary, but the worry of overcapacity does not need to be over-fired!
At present, the main basis for discriminating overcapacity is the number of MOCVDs in China's planning. However, after SEMI tracking and statistical analysis, the number of MOCVDs in China's practice devices lags behind the number of programs or announcements. And many manufacturers' plans to increase the number of dozens or even hundreds of MOCVD is carried out in several stages, the entire time span is long, and the enterprise integrity can be adjusted according to the actual situation at that time. Therefore, the number of MOCVDs currently counted by some institutions is exaggerated. Nevertheless, the amount of MOCVD practice devices in China will reach a very large range two years later, and the production capacity will be released several times (see “ChinaLEDFabInduSTryReport2010†for detailed quantity and analysis).
At present, in the middle and lower reaches of LED industry, China has undoubtedly become a big LED country. In 2010, China's LED industry sales value reached 100 billion, and continued to grow at a rate of 30% per year. China's LED full-color screen, LED landscape lighting and other applications have ranked first in the world and become an important export consumer base. As the two major driving factors of the LED industry, LCD TV and general lighting market, China has a huge potential advantage.
China is not only a major manufacturer of LCD TVs, but also a major consumer. It is estimated that China will become the world's largest LCD TV consumer market after 2011. China is the world's largest lighting source, such as fluorescent energy-saving lamps, incandescent lamps and many other lighting. The manufacturing base and export base of light sources, in 2010, the output of various types of lighting sources in China is expected to reach more than 15 billion. As the penetration rate of LEDs in such markets climbs from time to time, the demand potential of the Chinese LED market is staggering.
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